Study: Obesity could account for 3.6 percent of GDP globally by 2060
According to a modeling study by the North Carolina-based Research Triangle Institute (RTI), obesity could be a factor that gnaws away at 3.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in cost terms in many countries by 2060. Appropriate measures could significantly reduce these costs.
The costs caused by the consequences of increasing obesity will amount to an average of 3.6 percent of a country's GDP in 2060. This is predicted by a Model study by RTI International and World Obesity Federation. If the incidence of obesity could be maintained at 2019 levels through appropriate interventions, the 2060 accrued costs would be reduced by an average of 13 percent.
Increasing cost factor
For decades, the overweight problem (BMI 25 to 29.9) and obesity (BMI 30 and above) have been on the rise around the world. This results in increasing costs, including medical treatment and premature death.
The researchers estimate these costs for eight countries representing different geographical regions and levels of prosperity. Accordingly, they would already amount to 0.8 percent (India) to 2.4 percent (Saudi Arabia) of GDP in 2019 and up to $940 per capita (Australia) in absolute terms.
If the prevalence of excess BMIs continues to increase unchecked, the resulting costs will range from 2.4 percent (Spain) to 4.9 percent (Thailand) of GDP in 2060, averaging 3.6 percent. If the spread reached in 2060 could be reduced by five percent compared with this worst-case scenario, this would also reduce the costs incurred by five percent. If the obesity level of 2019 could even be maintained, the costs incurred in 2060 would fall by an average of just over 13 percent, from 1.4 percent (India) to 4.1 percent (Mexico) of GDP.
Worldwide problem situation
Although the study only looks at eight countries, similar findings are likely to apply worldwide. "Our findings suggest that obesity has a huge economic impact in all countries, regardless of geographic location or income," the researchers explain.
It is true that there are enormous country-specific differences in terms of the extent and impact. In the worst case, for example, "only" 57 percent of Indians would be at least overweight in 2060, but 93 percent of Saudis would already be overweight. But in all the scenarios examined, the costs incurred in relation to GDP increase.
The total costs of obesity may even have been underestimated in the study. Due to a lack of data for a cross-national comparison, certain costs, such as early retirement due to illness or missed promotions due to prejudice against the obese, were not even taken into account.
