Security Switzerland 2021: New federal situation report published

The Covid 19 pandemic will have a lasting impact on national and international security policy. Switzerland's security environment will continue to be significantly shaped by the growing competition between the major powers. Violent right-wing and left-wing extremists are trying to exploit protest potential in society for their own ends. Especially in protracted or even worsening crises such as the current Covid 19 pandemic, this potential can increase. In addition to attempts at instrumentalization by the known violent extremist scenes, there is also a risk that protest will intensify and in some cases become violent without their involvement.

The Great Powers' Striving for Influence

Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. will nurture its global alliance system again as well as return to engaged diplomacy in a multilateral framework and the defense of democracy. Its security focus will remain on strategic competition with China. Within NATO, the United States will continue to solicit support from allies and partners vis-à-vis China, namely in the area of advanced technology. In the conflict with Iran, the new administration is prioritizing negotiations.

China's rise as a major global power is all but certain. The strategic orientation of becoming the strongest world power by the middle of the century will remain the basis of Chinese government action. The focus is not on integration by adopting international norms and rules. Rather, the Communist Party is increasingly presenting the Chinese model of government as an alternative to liberal democracy.

Russia's foreign and security policy leeway remains intact despite the focus on the internal development of the Putin system. Russia is successfully using its limited resources abroad with relatively little effort to strengthen its own sphere of influence. On its western border, it wants to regain influence over NATO and the EU that was lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. One of the things Russia has in common with Turkey is its confrontational policy toward Europe, even though there are considerable differences of interest. As a tandem, both states could expand their positions vis-à-vis Europe and gain further influence in the Mediterranean region.

Large increase in espionage activities in cyberspace

Espionage remains an ever-present challenge. Digitization and networking are enabling a sharp increase in espionage in cyberspace. The targets of foreign espionage remain unchanged; Geneva remains a focal point due to the presence of international organizations and a large number of diplomatic missions. Foreign intelligence services pose a direct threat to certain target groups in Switzerland and can be involved in influencing activities against Swiss interests.

Risk for terrorist attacks with low logistical effort

The terror threat in Switzerland remains heightened. It emanates primarily from the jihadist movement. The attacks carried out in 2020 in Switzerland and in neighboring France, Germany and Austria confirm this assessment.

Attacks with little organizational and logistical effort, perpetrated by autonomously acting lone perpetrators, are the most likely threat. Any attacks are likely to be primarily directed against so-called soft targets such as groups of people, poorly secured buildings and public transport facilities. Increasingly, radicalization and violent orientation among perpetrators also coincide with personal crises or psychological problems.

To the detailed situation report "Security Switzerland 2021" (PDF)

Source: NDB