Federal Council anticipates growing pressure on Switzerland

In the report, the Federal Council states in particular that, in view of the highly polarized environment, growing political and economic pressure on Switzerland is to be expected with regard to the strategic situation. In the area of terrorism, the international propaganda campaign launched by the "Islamic State" at the beginning of 2024 and several high-profile attacks have created a new dynamic in the jihadist movement. This propaganda has encouraged the emergence of networks of sympathizers in Switzerland, especially among young adults and even minors.

The Federal Council's annual report on the assessment of the threat situation relates on the one hand to events abroad that are significant in terms of security policy and on the other hand to the threats specified in the Federal Intelligence Service Act (NDG).

The Federal Council notes that Switzerland is still relatively safe, but much less so than before 2022 given the highly polarized environment with multiple crises and armed conflicts in Europe and on Europe's periphery. Conventional war has returned to Europe with the Russian aggression against Ukraine. Russia will remain the determining factor of uncertainty in Europe for a long time to come, in an environment in which the vision of a strategically autonomous EU independent of the USA and NATO will remain unattainable for the foreseeable future. The theater of war in the Middle East includes Gaza and the sea routes around Yemen. The likelihood of a military escalation between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah is increasing. There was also a direct military exchange of blows between Israel and Iran for the first time.

We are living in a dangerous and volatile time of transition. Generally binding global principles of order are eroding. In view of the trend towards the formation of bipolar spheres, growing political and economic pressure on Switzerland is to be expected. According to the Federal Council, Switzerland is likely to be asked to make more solidarity contributions and take a greater political stance as a result.

The threats in detail

As far as the threats mentioned in the NDG are concerned, the threat of terrorism in Switzerland remains heightened. However, the major terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel at the beginning of October 2023 and the subsequent hostilities have accentuated this threat. Islamic State propaganda in particular has encouraged the emergence of networks of sympathizers in Switzerland, especially among young adults and even minors. Spontaneous acts of violence using simple means, carried out by jihadist-inspired individual perpetrators or small groups, remain the most likely threat scenario in Switzerland. However, major events or high-profile occasions are also attractive opportunities for jihadists to carry out attacks. This also applies to Switzerland.

In the area of violent extremism, the risk of violent left-wing extremist groups using targeted violence against individuals or even carrying out terrorist attacks is increasing in Europe and Switzerland. The threat of right-wing extremist terrorism in Europe continues to grow. In Switzerland, for example, there have been several cases of very young people who were prepared to commit an act of terror.

The threat to Switzerland from espionage remains high. A significant proportion of the activities of foreign intelligence services on Swiss soil are primarily directed against their own rivals. However, Swiss entities are also directly affected by espionage attempts. One of the constant targets is the spying on federal authorities. In terms of content, the procurement of armaments technologies and Switzerland's relations with the EU and NATO are currently likely to be of interest. Intelligence networks are not only used worldwide for espionage. Parts of them are also used for the illegal procurement of critical or sanctioned goods, the dissemination of disinformation and propaganda, the covert exertion of influence and the preparation and execution of kidnappings, sabotage and assassinations.

Source: Federal Intelligence Service