"Swiss Security 2024": The Federal Intelligence Service publishes its new situation report

We are living in a dangerous, volatile transitional period towards a reorganization of the global balance of power. Its duration is uncertain. In view of the highly polarized environment, with multiple crises taking place simultaneously and conflicts in Europe and on Europe's periphery being carried out with armed force, Switzerland is much less secure than it was just a few years ago. Europe finds itself in a challenging situation: the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has made Europe's security dependence on the USA painfully clear.

A group of Eurasian autocracies - China, Russia, North Korea and Iran - are increasingly cooperating militarily, which is having an impact on regional wars and crises. These states want to push back the influence of the USA and fight against Western ideas of order. They are trying to change the status quo in their respective regions and establish their own spheres of influence. China is striving to become a world power by the middle of the century. Closer military cooperation between these states is one of the most worrying of the strategic patterns currently emerging. In the coming months, several conflicts and crises will therefore pose a particular challenge to Western states. In addition, the US, the Western superpower, will be absorbed by the 2024 presidential election and a new administration.

War of attrition and wildfire risk

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has turned into a war of attrition with no foreseeable end. Russia remains determined to continue the war and its military potential will continue to grow in the coming months. In contrast, it has become politically more difficult for the USA and Europe to provide the aid that is vital for Ukraine. Time is therefore currently playing in Russia's favor.

Hamas' major terrorist attack on Israel and the resulting Gaza war are shaking the Middle East to the core. The intensity of the exchanges of blows between Israel and the so-called Axis of Resistance has increased continuously since October 2023. Since mid-September 2024, Israel has stepped up its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, challenging Iran and its regional strategy.

Espionage: camouflaged bases

The greatest threat to Switzerland from espionage currently comes from several Russian intelligence services. The threat to Switzerland from Chinese intelligence services is also high. Numerous services maintain disguised bases in Switzerland, known as residences. As a rule, these are operated in diplomatic representations.

The war against Ukraine and the escalating global confrontation over power politics have also increased the hybrid threat to Switzerland, particularly through Russian influence activities. In the area of proliferation, Russia's attempt to circumvent Western sanctions via private companies in third countries poses a major challenge for Swiss export controls on dual-use goods requiring a license.

Terrorism: the threat has intensified

The terror threat in Switzerland remains elevated; it has even become more acute in 2024. It continues to be largely shaped by jihadist-inspired individuals. Since the beginning of 2024, the FIS has registered an intensified international dynamic among jihadist actors. This is reflected, for example, in an increase in police interventions in Europe on suspicion of terrorism. Jewish and Israeli interests remain exposed, including in Switzerland.

The violent right-wing and violent left-wing extremist scenes are continuing their activities as usual. The threats posed by violent right-wing and left-wing extremism have stabilized at a higher level.

There has been an increase in the radicalization of minors in Switzerland, particularly in the area of jihadism, but also in the area of violent right-wing extremism. This takes place online, in a short space of time and can lead to the perpetration of a terrorist attack.

Source: ndb.admin.ch