"Security Switzerland" 2017 - the status report

Europe's crisis situations, which the Federal Intelligence Service (NDB) have been described here for years, have been strengthened by additional elements since last year's report (click here for the latest Management Report): the UK's decision to leave the EU, the election of Donald Trump as president of the USA, and the constitutional change in Turkey. As a result, old certainties continue to erode, replaced by fundamental uncertainties and reduced predictability - the decisions in the UK and the US are also shaking the foundations of Europe's security architecture. Europe's order is under extraordinary pressure, which is not without consequences for Switzerland's strategic environment. An armed attack on Switzerland remains unlikely. What is unmistakable, however, is not only the polarization, also under the influence of cross-border influence and information operations, but also a stronger militarization on the European continent.

Terrorist threat remains

In some respects, Syria is the epicenter of the crisis situations in the states on the eastern and southern Mediterranean coast. The search for solutions has become even more difficult. The effects of the conflicts, which run as a complex succession of ruptures across the Middle East, reach deep into the collective psyche of the Arab and Sunni world in particular. They also grip Sunnis in Europe. Decisions in Syria and Iraq are not in sight, despite intensified military operations, much less a political solution. The "Islamic State" continues to play a central role in these crises. Jihadist-motivated terrorism shapes the threat situation worldwide. In Switzerland, too, the terrorist threat remains heightened. The threat emanates primarily from "Islamic State" and individuals and small groups inspired or controlled by it. The threat from the al-Qaeda terrorist group remains unchanged.

Effects of the Turkey crisis

Turkey is in the midst of a serious internal and external crisis. The turmoil in Syria and Iraq is perceived as endangering core interests of national security. The coup attempt in the summer of 2016 not only fundamentally challenged the stability of Turkish institutions: The president's reaction and his efficient instrumentalization of a broad-based Turkish nationalism exposed Turkey's relations with Europe to new tensions. The deterioration of relations with the EU, which has continued for several years, points to a potentially permanent damage to relations. Turkey is essential to Europe in containing refugee movements and the terrorist threat.

Since April 2016, i.e. after the closure of the so-called Balkan route and the conclusion of the agreement between the EU and Turkey, the peak of the previous year has been broken in the migration movement to Europe, but the pressure remains high. The potential for a crisis-like development continues to exist, and with it the possibility that the security aspects of migration will become more acute. This is true on the one hand in the area of terrorism with perpetrators who have arrived in Europe via this route, and on the other hand in the area of violent extremism. While the right-wing extremist scene in Switzerland has not yet emerged with violence against asylum seekers or infrastructure and service providers in the asylum sector, as elsewhere in Europe, the left-wing extremist scene has made migration one of its main themes and also acts violently. It is this topic that is most likely to escalate the situation in the area of violent extremism, which has tended to calm down - the potential for violence in this regard continues to exist.

Espionage

Espionage continues to be a state instrument for obtaining information. Spying also takes place in Switzerland - against Switzerland as well as against international organizations and non-governmental organizations based here. Increasingly, sabotage activities in cyberspace are attracting global attention. States that have their own offensive cyber capacities are developing them intensively. After the Snowden disclosures provided deep insights into the cyber capabilities of the U.S. and its allies within the framework of the 5-Eyes states (U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand), activities from the Russian space in particular are currently increasing in aggressiveness in cyberspace. States without their own offensive means are increasingly relying on the offers of hacker groups. Interstate conflicts are increasingly being fought out in virtual space.