The crisis situations in Europe, which the Federal Intelligence Service (NDB) now for several years in his Management Report are characterized by the sharp increase in non-state actors and the possibilities of hybrid warfare. The return of power politics with partly pronounced unilateral features, increased tensions between Western states and Russia, but also the political and economic challenges in European countries are parts of a seemingly hardly fixable situation picture. The old order is changing under the pressure of new political, economic, military, but also technological, social and cultural forces. Where this change will lead is uncertain. In this world of uncertainty and growing insecurity, the contribution of the FIS is of the utmost importance: the overall situation picture assembled from intelligence complements the decision-making basis of those responsible for security policy significantly.

Growing rivalry between the great powers

Under the spell of its own crises and power struggles, Europe's political stability and economic robustness are declining. As a result, the negative effects of the return of power politics and thus of the growing power rivalries between the USA, Russia and China on Switzerland's security are becoming increasingly visible. The increasing uncertainty in its environment is gaining importance for Switzerland in terms of security policy.

In order to safeguard its security and national interests in the global strategic competition, the USA relies not only on military strength but also heavily on economic pressure. Secondary sanctions with extraterritorial effect are an important instrument in this context. These are intended to force third countries and large internationally active companies to accept U.S. requirements, particularly in the area of Iran policy.

Russia's increased self-confidence is based above all on its regained military strength and the tightly organized power apparatus under President Putin. It wants to be perceived as a great power on a par with the USA. However, limitations in military capabilities remain. Russia will therefore continue to rely on influence operations, i.e. on activities such as information campaigns, manipulation and propaganda, up to and including open political, military and economic pressure. Blackmail and, in individual cases, violent actions also remain possible.

China will continue to do its utmost to grow economically and militarily: A fundamental departure from its current course remains very unlikely. Iran will try to ride out the Trump presidency and not capitulate. A complete renunciation by North Korea of nuclear weapons and delivery systems suitable for their use remains unlikely, even if it sends disarmament signals at points.

Espionage has gained in importance - as a means of obtaining information, it is on the rise worldwide. Russia, with its agenda driven by great power politics, and China, with its economic agenda in particular, are in first and second place, respectively. The broader trend, involving numerous other states, of increasingly seeking to assert interests by force rather than by legal means or in multinational bodies could increasingly lead to serious crimes such as kidnappings or assassinations at the behest of the state. Foreign intelligence services are likely to play a role in the preparation, execution, and follow-up of such actions. The use of cyber means as a central instrument of national exercise of power is also likely to gain further weight.

In the area of proliferation, the attractiveness of weapons of mass destruction remains high, and technological progress favors their acquisition. In the area of civilian nuclear technology, it is now China that is shaping the dynamic. This also shifts the emphasis of the commitment to nonproliferation and to preventing the emergence of new nuclear weapon states. In the case of proliferation targets - Pakistan, Iran, Syria (possible replacement for chemical weapons program), North Korea - the situation has not changed.

Terrorism remains topical despite the dismantling of the caliphate

The Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel remain theaters of numerous armed conflicts. For example, although the Syrian regime and its Russian and Iranian allies have strategically defeated the insurgents, they have not yet achieved victory. The "Islamic State" and other jihadist groups remain capable of major attacks despite massive losses. Jihadist groups and the individuals and small groups they direct or inspire continue to pose a serious terrorist threat to Europe. Because Switzerland belongs to the Western world, which is considered Islamophobic by jihadists, the threat in our country remains heightened. A challenge for Switzerland, just as it is for its European neighbors, is dealing with cases of those released from prison or those who have become radicalized in prison. Switzerland will also be confronted with return jihadist-motivated travelers, including individuals currently stuck in Syria or Iraq.

The far-right scene on the rise

The far-right scene is on the rise, and several groups now have open websites. Despite this new inclination toward a certain visibility, the scene continues to behave in a conspiratorial manner. However, its potential for violence remains unchanged, as does that of the far-left scene. This scene is internationally networked, which is probably one reason for the partial intensification of violence that has been observed since 2017. The left-wing extremists bundle their actions into campaigns, especially against the alleged repression and here namely against the expansion of the Bässlergut prison in Basel, and show solidarity with the PKK in favor of the Kurdish self-governing regions in northern Syria. The return of left-wing extremists trained in weapons from these areas is a matter of concern for the European security authorities.

Source: VBS / NBD