Switzerland's environment is characterized by great power rivalries

The annual report just published "Security Switzerland 2020 of the Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) presents the most important situation developments from an intelligence perspective. The following is a summary by the FIS:

The question of the security implications of the Covid 19 pandemic cannot yet be answered in detail. However, the findings of the FIS so far allow the general statement that the pandemic reinforces and probably accelerates already existing trends in the international system. The pandemic provides further evidence of the end of a world order that was strongly influenced by the United States, its alliance system, and institutions that were significantly influenced by the United States.

The change currently observable in international security policy will continue. It is questionable whether a stable order will form again in the foreseeable future. A new bipolar order between the U.S. and China would be possible, but this is not yet clearly evident at present. Even more uncertain is a development toward a multipolar system. 

Strategic competition between the major powers

Switzerland's strategic environment is shaped by the rivalry between the USA and China, Russia's efforts to consolidate its sphere of influence in Europe, and various conflicts and crises on European borders. While the U.S. will remain the world's most influential power beyond 2020, transatlantic relations and the U.S. presence in the Middle East will continue to lose importance in the future. America's geopolitical challengers are trying to profit from this and to use the gaps created by the end of American dominance to implement their own interests.

China sees itself as a rising great power on a par with the USA. The gap between the liberal model shaped by the West and authoritarian state capitalism will continue to grow. There are growing indications that the international system could be increasingly shaped by strategic competition between the U.S. and China - to the point of establishing exclusive strategic zones of influence.

Russia continues to pursue the goal of acting on an equal footing with the U.S. and seeks to establish and consolidate its own sphere of influence. Its policies are showing results, but it is striving for more. Ukraine remains at the center of Russian strategic interests, as does Belarus following protests in the aftermath of the August 9, 2020 presidential election, where the Kremlin clearly warns the U.S. and EU against any interference. The Black Sea and the Mediterranean are also theaters of strategic rivalry with other actors. Russia also uses military means to achieve its goals.

Espionage as an instrument for power struggles

Espionage is an expression of the tensions described above. States use espionage as an instrument to gain or consolidate an advantageous or even dominant position over political, military or economic rivals in power struggles. Such tensions are also reflected in espionage activities of foreign states on Swiss soil, which damages Switzerland's image as a host state for international diplomacy. In addition, Swiss interests are directly threatened when foreign espionage actors target, for example, the Swiss financial and trading center, innovative companies, or political institutions in order to gain competitive advantages and influence. Certain states also use espionage as a tool against their nationals to consolidate their own power - for example, by monitoring and intimidating opposition figures abroad, including in Switzerland.

Espionage, indeed the international power struggles as a whole, also take place in cyberspace. So far, Switzerland's critical infrastructures have never been the direct target of state-sponsored sabotage. However, when critical infrastructures are attacked, Swiss business partners and suppliers are also targeted, and their damage is at least taken into account. Swiss targets can therefore also become indirect victims of conflict in cyberspace.

Violent extremism: attempts to instrumentalize demonstrations

In the context of jihadist terrorism, the "Islamic State" continues to set the tone. The terror threat in Switzerland remains elevated. Further attacks in Europe are likely - primarily those inspired by "Islamic State". Although Switzerland is one of the legitimate targets for attacks in the eyes of the jihadists, it is not the main focus.

The potential for violence in both the left-wing extremist and right-wing extremist scenes remains. In the left-wing extremist scene, more intensive forms of violence, such as arson, remain limited primarily to objects that are seen in connection with the supposed "repression". At demonstrations, broader participation in acts of violence and high or even increasing aggressiveness can be seen. The left-wing extremist scene in particular is attempting to take the lead in newly emerging movements such as this year's Black Lives Matter demonstrations in Switzerland and to instrumentalize them for its own purposes.

Members of the extreme right-wing scene currently use violence with restraint. However, it remains to be mentioned that martial arts are trained in said scene and functional weapons are available. The greatest risk of a right-wing extremist-motivated attack in Switzerland is posed by individuals acting on their own with right-wing extremist convictions but without a firm affiliation to established violent extremist groups.

Press release Federal Intelligence Service