Civil protection: pandemic and power shortages are the biggest risks

The national risk analysis «Disasters and Emergencies Switzerland» (KNS) 2025 identifies a prolonged power shortage and a pandemic as the two greatest risks for Switzerland. Both scenarios have a high potential for damage and a relatively high probability of occurrence.

The probability of a pandemic occurring is estimated to be higher than in the 2020 analysis. The main reasons for this are ongoing globalization, increased human-animal contact and risks arising from climate change. The extent of damage is also estimated to be higher, as the current scenario assumes a novel, unknown pathogen. As a result, the development of a vaccine would take longer and mutations would be more likely.

In the power shortage scenario, however, the extent of damage was estimated to be lower. Thanks to new contingency measures, the risk of uncontrolled power outages and cyclical grid shutdowns was reduced.

Armed conflict remains the threat with the greatest extent of damage. It would cause a high number of fatalities, considerable economic losses and extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure. It is also the only threat examined that could have a negative impact on Switzerland's territorial integrity. The expected disruption to the supply of numerous goods and services would be particularly serious.

Based on Article 8 of the Federal Act on Civil Protection and Civil Defense (CPA), the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) published its first comprehensive national risk analysis in spring 2013 with twelve hazards in the area of disasters and emergencies. The last analysis was published in 2020.

With KNS, the FOCP provides a strategic tool that enables a comprehensive view of the current risk landscape. The analysis systematically classifies the risks, assesses their potential impact and thus creates a reliable basis for planning, prevention and preparedness at all levels of government.

The most important key data for the national risk analysis 2025

Under the direction of the FOCP, 265 experts were involved in the development, validation and evaluation of the scenarios. They came from federal agencies, cantons and communes as well as from industry - in particular from operators of critical infrastructure - and academia.

A total of 44 hazards relevant to population protection were systematically examined in terms of their potential extent of damage and their probability of occurrence in order to determine the respective risk. The spectrum ranges from natural hazards such as earthquakes to technical hazards such as a nuclear power plant accident and social hazards such as an armed conflict.

The inclusion of numerous experts from various fields means that the results are broadly based. In addition, a comparison was made with Switzerland's security policy strategy.

Working tool for politics, federal government and cantons

The national risk analysis is updated every five years by the FOCP. It forms a central basis for the systematic planning of measures to prepare for disasters and emergencies.

A common understanding of risk across administrative and specialist areas facilitates coordination between strategic planning, operational preparation and political decision-making. KNS 2025 supports the partner organizations in prioritizing risks, targeting precautionary measures and planning joint exercises.

Cantons and municipalities receive guidance for their own hazard analyses and action planning. Emergency organizations use the results for training and preparation, while operators of critical infrastructures use them to strengthen their resilience to various risks.

Documents available

The risk report «Report on the national risk analysis - disasters and emergencies in Switzerland 2025» is accompanied by a risk brochure, a methodology report, a collection of all 44 hazard dossiers and, for the first time, interactive risk matrices on the FOCP website (www.risk-ch.ch). The risk report, the risk brochure and the methodology report are also available in printed form from the FOCP.

Source: FOCP